Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Statement on 26 March, unveiling welfare cuts and spending reductions in order to balance the government’s books in the face of a worsening fiscal outlook.
The new spending plans were required to ensure the Chancellor stays on track to meet her two self-imposed fiscal rules, which she confirmed remain “non-negotiable.” An updated forecast produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had more than wiped out the Chancellor’s previous £9.9bn fiscal buffer announced in last October’s Budget due to a combination of higher debt interest costs and lower economic growth.
Several policy changes announced in the Spring Statement, including welfare reforms and day-to-day departmental spending reductions, restored the buffer back to its October level. The OBR did, however, note that its size remains historically low and that the buffer therefore provides only a small margin of error against the risk of future economic shocks.
Speaking after Ms Reeves delivered her statement, OBR Chair Richard Hughes also acknowledged the precarious nature of economic forecasting and admitted there were many factors that could once again “wipe out” the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom; these include an escalating trade war, a small downgrade to growth forecasts or a rise in interest rates.
This vulnerability was vividly highlighted just hours after the Chancellor finished her speech, with President Trump’s announcement of a new 25% tariff on cars and car parts coming into the US – a move which is widely expected to hit global growth prospects.
Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) also concluded that the Chancellor’s headroom is ‘very small.’ IFS Director Paul Johnson added there was a “good chance” economic forecasts would deteriorate significantly before the Autumn Budget which could leave the government facing months of damaging speculation about what taxes might need to be increased.
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